(Photo by Seth Boyes)
Northeast Iowa might be in for a wetter-than-normal winter, but if everything goes as predicted, the resulting added groundwater may produce higher yields than previous years come harvest time next fall, which. But officials say higher yields might not equate to higher profit.
“Any opportunities to add moisture to the soil profile before a hard freeze will be beneficial to farmers in northeast Iowa,” said Iowa State University Extension and Outreach Field Agronomist Joshua Michel. “An adequate supply of soil moisture in the spring is important for seed germination and to ensure that seedlings can quickly establish good root systems. A soil profile at or near full moisture capacity coming into spring is good just in case we begin to experience some dryer than normal weather conditions.”
Colder temperatures and dryer conditions have prevailed so far this month, but Iowa State Climatologist Justin Glisan said the state is currently in a “La Nina Watch.” La Nina is a weather phenomenon that occurs when the surface water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are colder than normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Glisan said Iowa has a 60 percent chance of transitioning into La Nina sometime between November and December.
“Typical La Nina winters are colder across the Dakotas through Montana and the Pacific Northwest,” Glisan said. “The southern states are generally warmer and drier. We don’t have clear guidance for Iowa, as we are categorized in ‘Equal Chances’ of above/below/near-average.”
Glisan went on to say northeastern Iowa is leaning toward wetter winter conditions.
“In weak La Nina winters, we have generally experienced above-normal seasonal snowfall totals across much of the state,” he said.
On the other hand, Glisan said from 2020 through 2022, three consecutive La Nina winters yielded both warmer and dryer conditions in Iowa — except for the winter of 2021-22, which ranked as the 63rd coldest winter in the last 152 years. Additionally, the winter of 2022-23 was the 16th driest on record, Glisan said.
“In terms of the next growing season, we have seen drier conditions across the state this fall, so any moisture we can bank before soils freeze will be beneficial,” he said. “Also, with the potential for slightly above-average snowpack, we may end up with additional moisture to infiltrate as we thaw through late winter.”
But crop yield isn’t the only number northeast Iowa producers will be keeping an eye on.
“Incredibly strong … production is great for filling bins, bragging about yields and building up next year’s insurance yield,” said ISU Extension and Outreach economist Chad Hart. “But, it is also the weight that has driven down prices for a vast majority of this calendar year. Farm incomes tend to be better with lower yields and higher prices than with lower prices and higher yields.”
This year’s harvest saw a market rate of $3.98 per bushel of corn in northeast Iowa, according to data from the ISU Extension and Outreach Office — about the same price per bushel producers saw from 2007 to 2010.
“Corn and soybean prices are forecast to stay steady or increase slightly over the next several months,” said Joseph Lensing, ISU farm management specialist for northeast Iowa. “Despite a dry second half of the growing season, yields are expected to be 5 percent to as much as 10 percent higher than last year with a national all-time high corn and soybean yield projected.”
Increased demand would also help Iowa farmers, Lensing said, but he said that may be difficult to achieve with an overwhelming supply.
“Due to the large level of corn stocks from years of high production, supply has been overpowering demand,” he said. “An increase in exports and domestic usage would have a positive impact on prices. The demand for corn and soybeans in the renewable/sustainable fuel markets is something to keep an eye on as the years go by.”
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